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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:46 pm 
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pnoom wrote:
corrections wrote:
Wade, Pierce, and Billups are horrible particularly Mr. Big Shot who is one of the worst in the league overall (I'll explain how he got his name later).

You forgot to do this.


Quote:
Billups has an incredibly inflated repuation (based almost entirely on 2002-2003 where he was 6/12 and 5/8 from 3).


He has one other year where he did pretty well and then a whole lot of nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:23 pm 
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Ignore me then.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:34 pm 
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Great stuff, Crx. No surprise seeing Allen at the top. Not only is the dude a lights out shooter, but Doc Rivers has gotta be one of the two or three best coaches in the league as far as drawing up plays at the end of the game. Obviously it helps to have KG (and Perk back in the day) setting moving screens for days but still.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:13 pm 
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.425 from 3 is pretty ridic. I think his numbers suffer somewhat if you expand your definition of clutch, though. Last time i checked, at least. It's kinda been sad seeing him limp around in the playoffs this year, though. Fuck, anyone remember him playing for the sonics? that's how i remember watching him and he was much more slash and dash back then.


Anyways, so my main impression was the only way the Heat win game 6 was if lebron or D wade went off, because I just didn't see their offense suddenly clicking overnight. And that turned out to pretty much be the case. So given that, how do you guys feel about game 7? I feel the same way as 6, but now james going of again seems...well, possible, but i wouldn't count on it. I'll give it to boston.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 10:45 pm 
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Crx, that was a good read, but to me clutch is so much more than the finals seconds.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:41 pm 
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corrections wrote:
pave wrote:
i think the problem with these kinds of stats is the sample size is ridiculously low in some cases (like the "last possession to take the lead or tie" clutch stats). the "less than 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats have a larger sample size, but usually isn't what most of us are talking about with "clutch", as in "game on the line during that possession". which are usually the more memorable moments, and the reason we cling to them.

i think part of the LeBron thing is that while his "last 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats are very good like you said, his "last possession" stats aren't. or at least, from stuff i've seen. i remember seeing an article earlier this year that said he was like 2 for 25 from three in those situations over the last 5 years. which is probably why i have an image of him jacking up bad threes at the end of games.

note: the more i look at the last 5 minutes stats, the more i think LeBron is unfairly treated (by me too). and it seems the story of how the Heat chose Wade as their closer at the beginning of the season turned out to not have an impact on the actual season lol.

overall, you are right in that this is a case of what "seems true" vs what "is true".


So I'm going to put together the numbers for the ten guys with strong clutch reputations (plus James) for the past 10 years (2002-2003 through 2011-2012). For definitional purposes I considered a last possession shot (I've included playoffs and regular season together) a shot with less than 24 seconds left and that shot ties the game or gives the lead to the shooters team (obviously this doesn't account for shots at the end of the game that put it out of reach which can be as important or FT).

So with that limited definition here are their orders in the following categories.

FGA
Bryant 136
James 90
Pierce 83
Wade 79
Billups 76
Durant 73
Dirk 71
Allen 69
Melo 65
Paul 43

Comment: Well Bryant is by far the champion shot taker (although he does have an extra year of shooting them on Lebron). But Lebron is a good seven takes clear of anyone else. In his relatively short career Durant has taken an insane number of these shots. Paul is the only one in this look under 50 attempts but I think he is a great clutch player in really underrated ways so I wanted to include him.

3PA
Kobe 63
Billups 44
Allen 40
Durant 39
Lebron 35
Wade 30
Pierce 25
Dirk 22
Melo 20
Paul 10

Comment: Yet again Kobe leads the pack by a lot. Durant has an insane number for his age. Billups, Allen, and Durant have taken over half of their ultra clutch shots from 3. Dirk and Melo would take surprisingly few threes based on what you would expect given their reputations.

Now we'll look at makes.
Made FG
Kobe 40
Melo 29
Dirk 26
Lebron 26
Allen 25
Durant 22
Wade 20
Pierce 20
Billups 18
Paul 17

Comment: Again Kobe leads the pack by a fair bit but given the number of attempts he has that's not surprising. Melo grades out really well on makes (remember he has the second lowest number of attempts after Paul). Lebron acquits himself fairly well in makes overall tying with Dirk (of course he also has a bunch more attempts than the guys around him. Allen does pretty well too. Durant has already passed Wade, Pierce, and Billups despite their significantly longer careers. Billups has a real paltry number of makes.

Made 3P
Allen 17
Kobe 16
Billups 14
Durant 12
Melo 7
Wade 5
Lebron 5
Dirk 4
Pierce 4
Paul 1

Comment: Allen leads the pack in makes despite being behind Billups and well behind Kobe in attempts. Durant again has made a ton for his age. Billups, Allen, and Durant all have over half of their makes as 3 pointers. Paul rarely attempts 3s so his result is not surprising.

And now the efficiency stats
FG%
Melo .446
Paul .395
Dirk .366
Allen .362
Durant .301
Kobe .294
Lebron .289
Wade .253
Pierce .241
Billups .237

Comment: As everyone probably already knows everyone shoots poorly in the clutch pretty much even the best players. Melo is the only player who shoots relatively normally in these situations (in fact that may be higher than his overall career percentage). Their are varying degrees of bad though. Paul, Dirk, and Allen are quite good in the context of these shots where the league in general is pretty bad. Durant, Kobe, and Lebron are below league average but not awful given the quality of defense they face. Wade, Pierce, and Billups are horrible particularly Mr. Big Shot who is one of the worst in the league overall (I'll explain how he got his name later).

3P%
Allen .425
Melo .350
Billups .318
Durant .308
Bryant .254
Dirk .182
Wade .167
Pierce .160
James .143
Paul .100

Comment: Allen and Melo put up great numbers here (league average I believe is in the 2s on this). Their numbers would be good for 3 pointers in any context. Ray Allen in particular has a ridiculously gaudy number. Given these numbers Melo should probably take a few more 3s and Allen can keep firing away. Billups redeems somewhat his awful overall percentage with a pretty effective 3 point%. Durant's is pretty high too especially given his penchant for high degree of difficulty shots. Bryant shoots pretty poorly but probably about average for these situations. His 3s are probably more effective than his off balance 2s though. The bottom five really don't have much business taking these shots. Paul only takes a couple every year so he gets a pass. Dirk has basically stopped taking them at all recognizing it as a weaknesses and something he gets guarded on. Pierce did a lot more early in his career but has cut them down as well. However, Wade and especially Lebron WTF are you doing taking these shots.

eFG%
Melo .500
Allen .486
Paul .407
Dirk .394
Durant .384
Kobe .353
Billups .329
Lebron .317
Wade .284
Pierce .265

From this it quite clearly emerges that Melo and Allen are the two best ultra clutch players in the league. I'd pretty much 100 times out of 100 have them take the shot than Kobe especially from 3. Paul doesn't shoot very much but when he does he's quite effective. Dirk and Durant put up good showings (Durant started his career very good had 2 years where he took a bunch of bad hero shots but seems to have righted himself this year). Kobe is definitively not as clutch as these five players. Only way I want him shooting instead of Dirk or Paul if its a 3. I don't want him shooting at all over Durant, Allen, or Melo. Kobe is definitely average from an efficiency perspective but given the defenses he faces we can call him above average in the clutch. Billups has an incredibly inflated repuation (based almost entirely on 2002-2003 where he was 6/12 and 5/8 from 3). Wade and Pierce are both horrifically bad ultra clutch players. The idea that Wade needs to be the closer over Lebron is fucking silly. Lebron's numbers have really taken a beating from his Miami days. I think as people started to say Lebron you need to take over more he started taking dumber shots verses doing what he used to which was let the shots come to him.

Btw worst performance in any given year from any of these players? Easily Pierce's 0-14 year from 2002-2003 (dishonorable mention Billups 2003-2004 2/19 2/11 and Kobe's year this year 3/18 1/8). Best performance? Melo's 8/14 2/3 2005-2006 was strong especially from an efficiency perspective but it has to be Durant's absurd 10/23 4/12 this year. Only player to make double digits on this type of shot in one year and still had reasonably good efficiency. Allen's 2008-2009 was pretty absurd too with a 6/9 6/8 line.



excellent post. pretty much what i expected. i'll go on record right now and say my anti-LeBron arguments overall are fairly inaccurate.

note: (i still think he doesn't always look confident, but the 5 minute stats aren't lying about his actual production so i have to accept that he gets the job done anyway... also in comparison to Kobe in terms of simply "willingness to take the last shot", it appears as if whatever criticism there is of LeBron should be directed to pretty much everyone in the league. although i think the current Kobe narrative is actually correct: he wants the last shot more than anybody, but he isn't really any better at making it. i think that's the narrative about Kobe ever since the clutch stats started getting more press though)


additional note: the 82games discrepancy seems to be that we were looking at different updates from the season. the one you linked me to was from a couple months ago. the one i was looking at was from last month http://www.82games.com/CSORT5.HTM the reason i asked was because LeBron is actually higher in FGA in the one i was looking at. also, Kyrie Irving looks fantastic by this (i didnt watch any Cavs games, as you could imagine lol)


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:22 am 
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re: Kobe vs LeBron in the post

i'll start off by clarifying that i don't think LeBron is inefficient at anything really. he is inefficient sometimes by comparison to other players (his FT% for example) but not in a vacuum. my complaint was not about his efficiency, but his willingness. and its not a "he's better/he's worse" type of comparison to begin with. LeBron is far and away the best overall player and usually lesser aspects of his game are still better than comparable peers who excel at that aspect (he's just that good). so when i say something to the affect of "Kobe works on his postgame more than LeBron", i'm saying i applaud Kobe's work ethic because i see it when i watch him. i see the grace that he has. i see the fundamentals he worked on to become the best he could be down low. and with LeBron, i don't. however, LeBron is still more efficient than Kobe anyway. why? because he's such an unstoppable force pretty much anywhere on the court. he literally didn't need to work on his postgame to become better than Kobe at it. so why do i criticize him despite the fact that he is better? because he shouldn't be "barely" better than Kobe down low. he should be significantly better than Kobe down low. because he has all the physical tools to be dominant. so i'm only really comparing him to his own potential (although i don't always phrase it like that cause i'm a dick to LeBron lol)


anyway, the actual stats for them in the post:

LeBron: 13.8% of his offensive plays, 0.96 points per play
Kobe: 19.3% of his offensive plays, 0.93 points per play

i don't know who got fouled more in the post but i know Kobe got more and-1s on post-plays so i'm guessing it was him and it would explain why the points per play was closer than the FG% would indicate (LeBron's FG% was a lot higher, but his turnovers were slightly higher and i'm guessing that combined with Kobe's free throws would explain why the overall efficiency was closer... but i don't wanna do the math right now, because points per play sums up the overall efficiency anyway and the breakdown isn't necessary)


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:23 am 
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pgm wrote:
Crx, that was a good read, but to me clutch is so much more than the finals seconds.


Of course it is. I was pointing out that under the ultra-clutch definition that most people use Lebron doesn't fair that poorly (if I took out the last two years his numbers would actually be quite good). Mainly though I wanted to illustrate that most people's perception of clutch is way off from what the numbers show. In any case I've created a nice nifty spreadsheet for myself so now I can run this information expanded much easier.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:26 am 
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honestly the only reason I'm not a fan of lebron is I just don't like his football, bull dozing people over style of play. Give me Kevin "can only bench press 125" Durant smoothness, instead.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:31 am 
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corrections wrote:
pgm wrote:
Crx, that was a good read, but to me clutch is so much more than the finals seconds.


Of course it is. I was pointing out that under the ultra-clutch definition that most people use Lebron doesn't fair that poorly (if I took out the last two years his numbers would actually be quite good). Mainly though I wanted to illustrate that most people's perception of clutch is way off from what the numbers show. In any case I've created a nice nifty spreadsheet for myself so now I can run this information expanded much easier.


btw, did you find those on 82games too? of all the great stat sites, its the hardest to navigate imo. i never know where to find shit on it.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:58 am 
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can the Pacers please make a run at Eric Gordon and Steve Nash this offseason? i know its probably impossible to get either (i'm banking on Gordon coming home and us overpaying Nash in the short term like we did with David West, which was a smart way to use up cap space that we had to use anyway but didn't get loaded down with anything longterm). but it would be awesome. maybe flip Granger/Collison for depth and have a Nash/Gordon/George/West/Hibbert lineup with a solid bench. i'd be stoked.


if no Nash, i'd also be stoked by a Granger/Collison for Lowry/something else trade.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:05 am 
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pave wrote:
corrections wrote:
pgm wrote:
Crx, that was a good read, but to me clutch is so much more than the finals seconds.


Of course it is. I was pointing out that under the ultra-clutch definition that most people use Lebron doesn't fair that poorly (if I took out the last two years his numbers would actually be quite good). Mainly though I wanted to illustrate that most people's perception of clutch is way off from what the numbers show. In any case I've created a nice nifty spreadsheet for myself so now I can run this information expanded much easier.


btw, did you find those on 82games too? of all the great stat sites, its the hardest to navigate imo. i never know where to find shit on it.


I used the shot tracker feature on basketball-reference (which I just found today). It only goes back to 2000-2001 I think because that's when they have play by play data. But there are a lot of fun tweaks you can do.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:12 am 
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i didn't watch any college ball this year, but did Sullinger really do so bad that he's dropping out of the lottery?


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 2:27 am 
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for fun... my personal (realistic) dream team using current players (pretending everyone is injury free):

PG Steve Nash
SG Tony Allen
SF Kevin Durant
PF Kenneth Faried
C Tyson Chandler
6th Manu Ginobili
rotation: Nick Collison, Avery Bradley, Shane Battier, Omer Asik
deep bench: Steve Novak, John Lucas

other players i love and considered:
stars (instead of Durant): Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love
secondary stars (instead of Nash): Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson, Luis Scola, Nene
starters: Kyle Lowry, Ricky Rubio, Ryan Anderson, Arron Afflalo
6th man: James Harden, Paul George
rotation: Nikola Pekovic, Ersan Ilyasova, Thabo Sefolosha, Chase Budinger, J.J. Redick, Matt Bonner, Taj Gibson, Boris Diaw
deep bench: Brian Cardinal, Jeff Foster


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 4:30 am 
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I don't want to get deeply involved in this debate, but here's one thought I'll throw out...

pave wrote:
i think the problem with these kinds of stats is the sample size is ridiculously low in some cases


That's not just the problem with the stats, that's the problem with the concept of "clutchness" in general. Every game is a chance for a player to prove himself. Relatively speaking, there aren't a whole lot of moments for players to prove their amount of clutch.


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