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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:28 pm 
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so does anyone who's not from Miami/Boston think the Heat/Celtics have a shot at taking more than one game from the Thunder?

If Durant has officially come into his own, then that is just awful timing for Lebron. His era of dominance may end before it even begins.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:39 pm 
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corrections, if you want to know why i give LeBron such a hard time all the time, tonight is a perfect example. THIS is what he is capable of. this is what an all-time top 10 player should do. if you don't have a high-quality supporting cast, put them on your shoulders and carry them. this is the type of game Jordan or Duncan or Hakeem would have (and all of them played with bad supporting casts and still won in their career). and they did it regularly. when LeBron does this, it makes me excited as a fan. because he could be one of the top 5 players that ever played.

it isn't "fair". i know that. when he scores 25 and they lose, i don't blame him for losing. i just judge him against Jordan, Dream, Bird, Magic, etc because they are his competition in terms of "greatest ever". and most importantly, i judge him against his own potential. so please don't think that i believe he isn't a great player. i just judge him by different standards because he is so far ahead of his peers in terms of talent.

and to be clear, its not usually the production that bothers me. Kobe has had a million games where he just shot terribly and killed his team and his production was awful. and LeBron is definitely the better all-around player and his production is almost always spectacular. what bothers me about LeBron is his attitude and approach. which again might be unfair, because it assumes that he needs to be Michael Jordan or Larry Bird, which he never asked to be. he would rather be Scottie Pippen than MJ. i get that. but he has the talent to be the best closer in history, and generally seems to simply not want the responsibility. in fact, at the beginning of the season, the Heat made the decision that Wade would be the default closer and LeBron had no problem with it at all. which makes him a great Pippen. but limits his impact in the closing moments.

but when he has games like this, its just a reminder that he should do this every time they need him. not because its fair to expect that out of him. but because the people he is compared to: Jordan, Bird, etc, would absolutely do everything they could. did they fail sometimes? of course they did. but they never went down without a fight to the end. even Kobe, who fails miserably very often, always fights. he spends his offseason improving tiny aspects of his game. he lives for basketball. does that make him better than LeBron? no it doesn't. but its why i like him more. because he though he fails, i never feel like he's gonna give up (well, except for that one time in Phoenix lol) or avoid the fight.

anyway, good game to LeBron tonight. i sincerely hope he plays like this for the rest of his career. and this isn't the first time: Orlando series in '09, Pistons series in '07, etc. just wish it wasn't one game every series or one series every other year.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:58 pm 
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pave wrote:
even Kobe, who fails miserably very often, always fights. he spends his offseason improving tiny aspects of his game. he lives for basketball. does that make him better than LeBron? no it doesn't. but its why i like him more. because he though he fails, i never feel like he's gonna give up (well, except for that one time in Phoenix lol) or avoid the fight.


Summed up why I just can't help but love Kobe, even though he frustrates the hell out of me sometimes, and kinda seems to be a dbag as a person. Sure, there may have been other guys who cared just as much and played and worked just as hard as Kobe that may not have shown it so visibly (Kobe face/jaw jut); whose to say? I'll never be convinced that anyone has cared or worked harder though, at least not in my lifetime. Plus, I think his personal battles (wanting to be the best and win all the time vs. trusting others enough to not jack up 5-6 bad shots a game etc. etc.) are fascinating and make him a compelling person, or character, cuz I mean basketball is just entertainment in the end.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:49 am 
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agreed.

the physical "look i'm so serious" things like you mentioned (the jaw) aren't why i think he loves the game. anyone can act like they love the game.

one example: a few years ago, Kobe (already a veteran) went to Hakeem to learn post-moves. ever since then, he has utilized a post-game effectively. it wasn't just about creating a narrative for himself. well, LeBron did the same thing last summer, after being criticized for not working on his game in the offseason. which created the "LeBron is working on his game" narrative. but did he use any of what he learned? does he have a post game now? it seems like the only reason he did it was for the narrative. i see this so much with LeBron. he cares so deeply about the narrative of his career. but i dont always see that he cares as much about actually winning. otherwise, why doesn't he use the post game he "learned" from Hakeem? the way Kobe does?


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:54 am 
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pave wrote:
corrections, if you want to know why i give LeBron such a hard time all the time, tonight is a perfect example. THIS is what he is capable of. this is what an all-time top 10 player should do. if you don't have a high-quality supporting cast, put them on your shoulders and carry them. this is the type of game Jordan or Duncan or Hakeem would have (and all of them played with bad supporting casts and still won in their career). and they did it regularly. when LeBron does this, it makes me excited as a fan. because he could be one of the top 5 players that ever played.

it isn't "fair". i know that. when he scores 25 and they lose, i don't blame him for losing. i just judge him against Jordan, Dream, Bird, Magic, etc because they are his competition in terms of "greatest ever". and most importantly, i judge him against his own potential. so please don't think that i believe he isn't a great player. i just judge him by different standards because he is so far ahead of his peers in terms of talent.

and to be clear, its not usually the production that bothers me. Kobe has had a million games where he just shot terribly and killed his team and his production was awful. and LeBron is definitely the better all-around player and his production is almost always spectacular. what bothers me about LeBron is his attitude and approach. which again might be unfair, because it assumes that he needs to be Michael Jordan or Larry Bird, which he never asked to be. he would rather be Scottie Pippen than MJ. i get that. but he has the talent to be the best closer in history, and generally seems to simply not want the responsibility. in fact, at the beginning of the season, the Heat made the decision that Wade would be the default closer and LeBron had no problem with it at all. which makes him a great Pippen. but limits his impact in the closing moments.

but when he has games like this, its just a reminder that he should do this every time they need him. not because its fair to expect that out of him. but because the people he is compared to: Jordan, Bird, etc, would absolutely do everything they could. did they fail sometimes? of course they did. but they never went down without a fight to the end. even Kobe, who fails miserably very often, always fights. he spends his offseason improving tiny aspects of his game. he lives for basketball. does that make him better than LeBron? no it doesn't. but its why i like him more. because he though he fails, i never feel like he's gonna give up (well, except for that one time in Phoenix lol) or avoid the fight.

anyway, good game to LeBron tonight. i sincerely hope he plays like this for the rest of his career. and this isn't the first time: Orlando series in '09, Pistons series in '07, etc. just wish it wasn't one game every series or one series every other year.


The problem is this closer mentality nonsense has taken hold of the NBA punditry and fans to a degree that becomes absurd. It is belied by multiple things. First, when people talk about closers they almost never talk about closing defense. Getting stops is just as important to winning a close game as scoring buckets. Lebron is an excellent closing defender (maybe the best). Remember what he did to poor Rose last year? Completely shut him down especially in crunch time. That's something that Jordan, Hakeem, and Duncan also did and something that Kobe has sometimes done but it's something that matters a lot. Second, I call total bull shit on the nominal closer role. Yes that was puzzling but the problem for Lebron is he can't win here. He actually takes plenty of clutch attempts and makes a bunch of them (his clutch stats are better than Kobe and Wade's to name a few). This year Lebron took 25.6 clutch attempts per 48 minutes (good for 13th in the league and tops on his team). Wade took 24.6. His FG% was better than Anthony's, Kobe's, and Wade's. He shot three pointers poorly but better than Kobe and Wade. He also was number 2 at getting to the line in the clutch (only Irving got there more). That's the one fly in his case in that he only shot 68% from the line in these situations. All told James was 17th in clutch points per 48 minutes (only 4 spots behind Kobe and only 3 points short on 8 fewer attempts per 38 minutes). Need a rebound in the clutch? He's top 10 for that. Need an assist? He's top 10 for that too. And yet people only remember the times he passed the ball in the clutch. Similarly they only remember Kobe's makes not his misses. This absurdity that Lebron is not a good closer needs to be put to rest. He was a perfect closer 3 rounds last year. Yes the Mavericks series was truly puzzling. But I think there is a simpler explanation than him not wanting it at least at first. Eric Spoelstra ran him into the ground all year and even more so in the playoffs and always gave him the hardest defensive assignments. He was gassed near the end against Dallas and when he was frustrated by Carlisle's clever defenses keeping him out of the lane and his shot stopped falling he froze up a bit.

So again I'm rather flumoxed by this myth of Lebron not wanting it or being a bad closer.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:56 am 
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pave wrote:
agreed.

the physical "look i'm so serious" things like you mentioned (the jaw) aren't why i think he loves the game. anyone can act like they love the game.

one example: a few years ago, Kobe (already a veteran) went to Hakeem to learn post-moves. ever since then, he has utilized a post-game effectively. it wasn't just about creating a narrative for himself. well, LeBron did the same thing last summer, after being criticized for not working on his game in the offseason. which created the "LeBron is working on his game" narrative. but did he use any of what he learned? does he have a post game now? it seems like the only reason he did it was for the narrative. i see this so much with LeBron. he cares so deeply about the narrative of his career. but i dont always see that he cares as much about actually winning. otherwise, why doesn't he use the post game he "learned" from Hakeem? the way Kobe does?


Read the Gladwell Simmons debate on Grantland. In any case the post game criticism is also puzzling. Just because Lebron has a supremely ugly post game doesn't mean it's ineffective. I can't remember who broke it down but someone pointed out that his post game actually nets him more points and more efficient points than Kobe's.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:41 am 
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corrections wrote:
Second, I call total bull shit on the nominal closer role. Yes that was puzzling but the problem for Lebron is he can't win here. He actually takes plenty of clutch attempts and makes a bunch of them (his clutch stats are better than Kobe and Wade's to name a few). This year Lebron took 25.6 clutch attempts per 48 minutes (good for 13th in the league and tops on his team). Wade took 24.6. His FG% was better than Anthony's, Kobe's, and Wade's.


what site are you looking at, for reference? cause 82games is giving me different info and i'd like to be on the same page as you for this. i'm guessing the 82games research had maybe a different definition or something.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:13 am 
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i think the problem with these kinds of stats is the sample size is ridiculously low in some cases (like the "last possession to take the lead or tie" clutch stats). the "less than 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats have a larger sample size, but usually isn't what most of us are talking about with "clutch", as in "game on the line during that possession". which are usually the more memorable moments, and the reason we cling to them.

i think part of the LeBron thing is that while his "last 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats are very good like you said, his "last possession" stats aren't. or at least, from stuff i've seen. i remember seeing an article earlier this year that said he was like 2 for 25 from three in those situations over the last 5 years. which is probably why i have an image of him jacking up bad threes at the end of games.

note: the more i look at the last 5 minutes stats, the more i think LeBron is unfairly treated (by me too). and it seems the story of how the Heat chose Wade as their closer at the beginning of the season turned out to not have an impact on the actual season lol.

overall, you are right in that this is a case of what "seems true" vs what "is true".


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 8:03 am 
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corrections wrote:
Read the Gladwell Simmons debate on Grantland. In any case the post game criticism is also puzzling. Just because Lebron has a supremely ugly post game doesn't mean it's ineffective. I can't remember who broke it down but someone pointed out that his post game actually nets him more points and more efficient points than Kobe's.
that also has in large part to do with lebron's physical built being closer to karl malone's than ray allen's...


Last edited by George on Fri Jun 08, 2012 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 8:13 am 
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LeBron has really worked on his post game and at least deserves some credit for it. Kobe's post game has declined a bit with his decline in athleticism. He used to be able to spin on you and go to the basket. Now, he can only outthink you.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 10:17 am 
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pave wrote:
agreed.

the physical "look i'm so serious" things like you mentioned (the jaw) aren't why i think he loves the game. anyone can act like they love the game.

one example: a few years ago, Kobe (already a veteran) went to Hakeem to learn post-moves. ever since then, he has utilized a post-game effectively. it wasn't just about creating a narrative for himself. well, LeBron did the same thing last summer, after being criticized for not working on his game in the offseason. which created the "LeBron is working on his game" narrative. but did he use any of what he learned? does he have a post game now? it seems like the only reason he did it was for the narrative. i see this so much with LeBron. he cares so deeply about the narrative of his career. but i dont always see that he cares as much about actually winning. otherwise, why doesn't he use the post game he "learned" from Hakeem? the way Kobe does?

that sounds preposterous to me. he spent a lot of his summer on a ranch in texas learning from hakeem because he cares about his narrative more than basketball?

and a post game is not all they worked on. they also worked on shot selection and efficiency, spending hours going over game tapes. and what do you know? lebron shot more efficiently last season than he ever had before. in an article i read hakeem was quoted saying he was really impressed with how lebron had taken everything he taught him to heart, and successfully implemented it all during the regular season, and that it's noticeable in his production, though he did think lebron did miss some opportunities when he should've used his post game while settling for a lower percentage jump shot instead, but overall still utilized it much better than he had before. even mentally hakeem gave him a lot of advice and told him about his own daunting quest to win a championship. your analysis of lebron's summer with hakeem is incredibly presumptuous and reductive. you have too much of a poverty of information about how he thinks and what he does to make those kind of broad assertions about why he makes decisions.

i can just as easily say he went there because he listened to others' criticisms of how he didn't work on his game enough during offseasons, and after taking them to heart, realized he could work harder, and that he wasn't as committed to improvement or receptive to criticism as he should have been in his younger years. there's a positive spin that's just as plausible, because neither of us know what's going on inside his head. or perhaps the public narrative didn't even matter to him at all and he just decided, "fuck it, i have to make some personal changes to my offseason approach to basketball to get better and make my team better."

i haven't kept track of how often he used his new post game, but he imagine he uses his post game now more than last season. hakeem agrees with that. how effectively and often did kobe utilize his new post game the season after he worked with hakeem?


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 10:34 am 
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pave wrote:
corrections wrote:
Second, I call total bull shit on the nominal closer role. Yes that was puzzling but the problem for Lebron is he can't win here. He actually takes plenty of clutch attempts and makes a bunch of them (his clutch stats are better than Kobe and Wade's to name a few). This year Lebron took 25.6 clutch attempts per 48 minutes (good for 13th in the league and tops on his team). Wade took 24.6. His FG% was better than Anthony's, Kobe's, and Wade's.


what site are you looking at, for reference? cause 82games is giving me different info and i'd like to be on the same page as you for this. i'm guessing the 82games research had maybe a different definition or something.


Looked straight at 82 games. http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM

Perhaps you were looking at the wrong year?


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:51 pm 
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pave wrote:
i think the problem with these kinds of stats is the sample size is ridiculously low in some cases (like the "last possession to take the lead or tie" clutch stats). the "less than 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats have a larger sample size, but usually isn't what most of us are talking about with "clutch", as in "game on the line during that possession". which are usually the more memorable moments, and the reason we cling to them.

i think part of the LeBron thing is that while his "last 5 minutes, within 5 points" stats are very good like you said, his "last possession" stats aren't. or at least, from stuff i've seen. i remember seeing an article earlier this year that said he was like 2 for 25 from three in those situations over the last 5 years. which is probably why i have an image of him jacking up bad threes at the end of games.

note: the more i look at the last 5 minutes stats, the more i think LeBron is unfairly treated (by me too). and it seems the story of how the Heat chose Wade as their closer at the beginning of the season turned out to not have an impact on the actual season lol.

overall, you are right in that this is a case of what "seems true" vs what "is true".


So I'm going to put together the numbers for the ten guys with strong clutch reputations (plus James) for the past 10 years (2002-2003 through 2011-2012). For definitional purposes I considered a last possession shot (I've included playoffs and regular season together) a shot with less than 24 seconds left and that shot ties the game or gives the lead to the shooters team (obviously this doesn't account for shots at the end of the game that put it out of reach which can be as important or FT).

So with that limited definition here are their orders in the following categories.

FGA
Bryant 136
James 90
Pierce 83
Wade 79
Billups 76
Durant 73
Dirk 71
Allen 69
Melo 65
Paul 43

Comment: Well Bryant is by far the champion shot taker (although he does have an extra year of shooting them on Lebron). But Lebron is a good seven takes clear of anyone else. In his relatively short career Durant has taken an insane number of these shots. Paul is the only one in this look under 50 attempts but I think he is a great clutch player in really underrated ways so I wanted to include him.

3PA
Kobe 63
Billups 44
Allen 40
Durant 39
Lebron 35
Wade 30
Pierce 25
Dirk 22
Melo 20
Paul 10

Comment: Yet again Kobe leads the pack by a lot. Durant has an insane number for his age. Billups, Allen, and Durant have taken over half of their ultra clutch shots from 3. Dirk and Melo would take surprisingly few threes based on what you would expect given their reputations.

Now we'll look at makes.
Made FG
Kobe 40
Melo 29
Dirk 26
Lebron 26
Allen 25
Durant 22
Wade 20
Pierce 20
Billups 18
Paul 17

Comment: Again Kobe leads the pack by a fair bit but given the number of attempts he has that's not surprising. Melo grades out really well on makes (remember he has the second lowest number of attempts after Paul). Lebron acquits himself fairly well in makes overall tying with Dirk (of course he also has a bunch more attempts than the guys around him. Allen does pretty well too. Durant has already passed Wade, Pierce, and Billups despite their significantly longer careers. Billups has a real paltry number of makes.

Made 3P
Allen 17
Kobe 16
Billups 14
Durant 12
Melo 7
Wade 5
Lebron 5
Dirk 4
Pierce 4
Paul 1

Comment: Allen leads the pack in makes despite being behind Billups and well behind Kobe in attempts. Durant again has made a ton for his age. Billups, Allen, and Durant all have over half of their makes as 3 pointers. Paul rarely attempts 3s so his result is not surprising.

And now the efficiency stats
FG%
Melo .446
Paul .395
Dirk .366
Allen .362
Durant .301
Kobe .294
Lebron .289
Wade .253
Pierce .241
Billups .237

Comment: As everyone probably already knows everyone shoots poorly in the clutch pretty much even the best players. Melo is the only player who shoots relatively normally in these situations (in fact that may be higher than his overall career percentage). Their are varying degrees of bad though. Paul, Dirk, and Allen are quite good in the context of these shots where the league in general is pretty bad. Durant, Kobe, and Lebron are below league average but not awful given the quality of defense they face. Wade, Pierce, and Billups are horrible particularly Mr. Big Shot who is one of the worst in the league overall (I'll explain how he got his name later).

3P%
Allen .425
Melo .350
Billups .318
Durant .308
Bryant .254
Dirk .182
Wade .167
Pierce .160
James .143
Paul .100

Comment: Allen and Melo put up great numbers here (league average I believe is in the 2s on this). Their numbers would be good for 3 pointers in any context. Ray Allen in particular has a ridiculously gaudy number. Given these numbers Melo should probably take a few more 3s and Allen can keep firing away. Billups redeems somewhat his awful overall percentage with a pretty effective 3 point%. Durant's is pretty high too especially given his penchant for high degree of difficulty shots. Bryant shoots pretty poorly but probably about average for these situations. His 3s are probably more effective than his off balance 2s though. The bottom five really don't have much business taking these shots. Paul only takes a couple every year so he gets a pass. Dirk has basically stopped taking them at all recognizing it as a weaknesses and something he gets guarded on. Pierce did a lot more early in his career but has cut them down as well. However, Wade and especially Lebron WTF are you doing taking these shots.

eFG%
Melo .500
Allen .486
Paul .407
Dirk .394
Durant .384
Kobe .353
Billups .329
Lebron .317
Wade .284
Pierce .265

From this it quite clearly emerges that Melo and Allen are the two best ultra clutch players in the league. I'd pretty much 100 times out of 100 have them take the shot than Kobe especially from 3. Paul doesn't shoot very much but when he does he's quite effective. Dirk and Durant put up good showings (Durant started his career very good had 2 years where he took a bunch of bad hero shots but seems to have righted himself this year). Kobe is definitively not as clutch as these five players. Only way I want him shooting instead of Dirk or Paul if its a 3. I don't want him shooting at all over Durant, Allen, or Melo. Kobe is definitely average from an efficiency perspective but given the defenses he faces we can call him above average in the clutch. Billups has an incredibly inflated repuation (based almost entirely on 2002-2003 where he was 6/12 and 5/8 from 3). Wade and Pierce are both horrifically bad ultra clutch players. The idea that Wade needs to be the closer over Lebron is fucking silly. Lebron's numbers have really taken a beating from his Miami days. I think as people started to say Lebron you need to take over more he started taking dumber shots verses doing what he used to which was let the shots come to him.

Btw worst performance in any given year from any of these players? Easily Pierce's 0-14 year from 2002-2003 (dishonorable mention Billups 2003-2004 2/19 2/11 and Kobe's year this year 3/18 1/8). Best performance? Melo's 8/14 2/3 2005-2006 was strong especially from an efficiency perspective but it has to be Durant's absurd 10/23 4/12 this year. Only player to make double digits on this type of shot in one year and still had reasonably good efficiency. Allen's 2008-2009 was pretty absurd too with a 6/9 6/8 line.


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:27 pm 
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that was a really interesting read crx


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 Post subject: Re: NBA.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:33 pm 
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corrections wrote:
Wade, Pierce, and Billups are horrible particularly Mr. Big Shot who is one of the worst in the league overall (I'll explain how he got his name later).

You forgot to do this.


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