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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:29 pm 
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pgm wrote:
Bruce wrote:
pave wrote:
[b
27. Walt Frazier


Good job ranking Walt so high.


Thank you.

Btw, looking at those immediately below Frazier, does anyone think Nowitzki can move higher than Pippen (and possibly Frazier)?

I'm trying to remember what I decided before Pave stopped editing the first post. I think Kobe was moved to #9, but I was hesitant on that. I think I switched LeBron and Barkley. If basketball ever returns, that won't last, though. 30-34 was moved around to 30. Dolph Schayes, 31. Jason Kidd, 32. Rick Barry, 33. Allen Iverson, 34. Steve Nash.


I do (but I'm biased towards Dirk obviously).


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:31 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
mrsamtotheg wrote:
kobe bryant in the top 10 is bullshit , objectively he belongs between the top 20 to 25 range.


I would agree that ten is too high, but I think he's gotta be higher than 20. I mean, you;d have to say that he's the second best shooting guard ever, right? The dropoff is huge after Kobe to the third guy (Drexler or Gervin maybe).

Here's my top twenty.

1 - Air
2 - The Big Dipper
3 - Kareem
4 - Russell
5 - Magic
6 - Bird
7 - Oscar
8 - West
9 - Shaq
10 - Duncan
11 - Olajuwon
12 - Baylor
13 - Barkley
14 - Kobe
15 - LeBron
16 - Admiral
17 - Cousy
18 - Stockton
19 - Mailman
20 - Dr. J

David Robinson gets underrated because they didn't win until after Duncan arrived, but he had little help before that and the team had an incredible turnaround when he arrived. His stats are much better than Duncan and Hakeem's stats. I don't see Russell being better than Wilt or Kareem, and I don't think it's very close either. He was the best player on the best team, but nobody back then thought he was better than Wilt. He jusy had much better teammates and coaching than Wilt had. Basketball history is full of games and series where one team had by far the best player (Wilt) but the other team that beat him had the better team.

Russell played with team that were full of hall of famers, Wilt didn't have that ever.

I don't buy the modern thinking that has Russell ahead of Wilt. That would be like saying that DiMaggio was better than Ted Williams. He just wasn't. You can't just judge players in team sports by how many championships they won.


I agree on the championship point in general but I will make two observations. First, in basketball defense has huge value and is difficult to measure. By all accounts Russell had great impact on that end. And second yes the team was chock full of hall of famers but more than one are undeserving who only got in because they rode coattails to rings (the past version of Robert Horry if you will).


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:35 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
Paulie wrote:
Why do you feel like West and Robertson (or even Bird) deserve to be ahead of Shaq and Tim Dumpling?


West and Robertson were players who were far better than the rest of the league at their position for most of their careers. They were 1980s level players playing in the 1960s, in terms of their advanced skills, especially Oscar.

West was first team all league ten times, and all defense four times, and they only started the all defense team towards the end of his career. If they had had it the whole time he would have been first team all defense like 12 times.

Oscar was first team all league 9 times. and a regular season MVP in the middle of the Wilt-Russell era, and AVERAGED a triple double one year.

Shaq was first team 8 times, and had weaknesses in his game. He could be a liability on defense too, as witnessed by what Olajuwon did to him in the finals with Orlando.

With Duncan, I am tempted to drop him even lower. Baylor, Barkley and some others have much better stats than Tim does. I just think Tim was in the right system with the right coach. Maybe I'm uderrating him some, he was first team all league 9 times, but I remember from my fantasy teams that his stats were never as good as some other players in the league in those days. Barkley was always more valuable in my league, as was Karl Malone and even Stockton in some years.

As for Bird, he just was unique at his height being that great a shooter, and he just made everybody else around him so much better.


I think the mistake to make with Duncan when looking at stats is two fold. First, his stats were always lower because the Spurs always husbanded minutes for their top players. Making decisions based on fantasy stats is absolutely silly. Second, (and again on the defensive point) he is the best defensive power forward ever to play the game (even though he's really been a center since Robinson retired) and maybe one of the top 5 all time. You say he benefited from the system. Well he was their system. People focus on Bruce Bowen but the only reason their defense worked like it did especially with suboptimal D from a number of point guards after Avery is because Duncan is an absolute beast of a defender in the middle.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:37 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
mrsamtotheg wrote:
Bruce wrote:
Just got off the phone with a real knowledgable NBA guy who says Kobe is top 5, ahead of magic, Bird, Oscar, Shaq, etc.....



looord how so, because I have my top guys and we all rank him out of the top 10


Well for one, how many of the guys you rank ahead of him are capable of dropping 80 points in one game?

Kobe started so young, he's likely to end up with the most points of all time if he plays long enough.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html

he's already in the top ten of all time for NBA/ABA combined, and he's just 33 years old.

By the way, the career win shares list looks a lot different than our lists:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html

Like I said, Duncan's stats were not as great as David Robinson and some others. Russell only #16, and magic and Bird are not top 20. I would guess the fact that those guys played with so many other great players as teammates is spotted by an objective mathematical system that has no emotion.


Rank Player WS
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 273.41
2. Wilt Chamberlain* 247.26
3. Karl Malone* 234.62
4. Michael Jordan* 214.02
5. John Stockton* 207.70
6. Artis Gilmore* 189.65
7. Oscar Robertson* 189.21
8. Shaquille O'Neal 181.71
9. Julius Erving* 181.11
10. Moses Malone* 179.17
11. David Robinson* 178.67
12. Charles Barkley* 177.21
13. Kevin Garnett 174.68
14. Reggie Miller 174.40
15. Tim Duncan 170.00
16. Bill Russell* 163.51
17. Hakeem Olajuwon* 162.77
18. Jerry West* 162.58
19. Dirk Nowitzki 161.30
20. Dan Issel* 157.82
21. Kobe Bryant 156.27
22. Magic Johnson* 155.79
23. Robert Parish* 147.00
24. Larry Bird* 145.83
25. Gary Payton 145.53
26. Dolph Schayes* 141.78
27. Bob Pettit* 136.05
28. Clyde Drexler* 135.57
29. Adrian Dantley* 134.22
30. John Havlicek* 131.72
31. Ray Allen 130.94
32. Jason Kidd 130.14
33. Walt Bellamy* 130.05
34. Rick Barry* 128.95
35. Patrick Ewing* 126.45
36. Scottie Pippen* 125.08
37. Paul Pierce 124.19
38. Elvin Hayes* 120.76
39. Buck Williams 120.09
40. Steve Nash 119.45
41. LeBron James 118.85
42. Horace Grant 118.23
43. Chauncey Billups 118.08
44. Dominique Wilkins* 117.47
45. Chet Walker 117.35
46. Bob Lanier* 117.11
47. Dikembe Mutombo 116.98
48. George Gervin* 116.28
49. Bailey Howell* 114.82
50. Walt Frazier* 113.54
51. Kevin McHale* 113.04
52. Jack Sikma 112.46
53. Terry Porter 110.39
54. Wes Unseld* 110.08
55. Shawn Marion 109.93
56. Larry Nance 109.57
57. Detlef Schrempf 109.52
58. Jeff Hornacek 108.87
59. Paul Arizin* 108.80
60. George Mikan* 108.65
61. Otis Thorpe 106.39
62. Zelmo Beaty 106.00
63. Bill Laimbeer 105.56
64. Sam Perkins 105.39
65. Rasheed Wallace 104.47
66. Elgin Baylor* 104.15
67. Maurice Cheeks 103.48
68. Hal Greer* 102.65
69. Vince Carter 102.48
70. Alex English* 100.68
71. Eddie Jones 100.56
72. Ed Macauley* 100.42
73. A.C. Green 99.46
74. Allen Iverson 98.97
75. Grant Hill 98.49
76. Jerry Lucas* 98.41
77. Pau Gasol 98.05
78. Vlade Divac 96.42
79. Elton Brand 95.73
80. Tracy McGrady 95.63
81. Lenny Wilkens* 95.53
82. Bobby Jones 93.79
83. Chris Mullin* 93.08
84. Kevin Johnson 92.77
85. Sam Jones* 92.29
86. Ben Wallace 92.08
87. Neil Johnston* 91.99
88. Mark Jackson 91.78
89. Terry Cummings 91.12
90. Bob Cousy* 91.11
91. Hersey Hawkins 90.62
92. Sidney Moncrief 90.32
93. P.J. Brown 89.84
94. Dennis Rodman* 89.83
95. Alonzo Mourning 89.74
96. Clifford Robinson 89.73
97. Charles Oakley 89.68
98. Shawn Kemp 89.51
99. Bob McAdoo* 89.08
100. Glen Rice 88.71


I can easily explain this and it is about career lengths and whether you value peak verses longevity. Basketball win shares favor accumulators and recently especially it has been easier to sustain a longer career. I also think they don't do a good job of adjusting for the sweltering pace in the 60s.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:40 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
mrsamtotheg wrote:
[
and once again in the NBA Finals he simply did not dominate like a top 10-15 player of all time who’s been there so many times should.


There are other rounds in the playoffs aside from the finals. Kobe's career playoff numbers are virtually identical to his regular season numbers in points, assists, rebounds and FG%.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nko01.html


Note for the first three stats he also plays more minutes per game in the playoffs. I suspect his per minute performance drops (most players drop). Dirk is one of the few NBA superstars whose number go up on a consistent per minute basis in the playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:44 pm 
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corrections wrote:
I can easily explain this and it is about career lengths and whether you value peak verses longevity. Basketball win shares favor accumulators and recently especially it has been easier to sustain a longer career. I also think they don't do a good job of adjusting for the sweltering pace in the 60s.


All win shares systems favor accumulators. Not sure what they do about the pace, but they should be normalizing all eras so that all eras are on equal footing. Don't forget that players back then will do a little better than modern players simply because they played more minutes in those days. Wilt averaged over 48 minutes a game one season. Most stars played over 40 minutes a game in the 50s and 60s and even the 70s. In modern times the stars play like 36-38 minutes a game.

It's the same reason that pitchers from many decades ago get more win shares and WAR than modern pitchers, they just pitched a lor more innings back then.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:44 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
Here's the career list for most PLAYOFF win shares:

Kobe is top ten already.

Erving is top ten on both the regular season and the playoff win shares lists. Maybe we're underrating him. The question is, how good (or not so good) was the ABA in the years that he was at his best. I saw him play in those days, and he more dominant than any non center I ever saw, including Jordan. In fact, I was at the last game ever in the ABA, the Nets won the championship in game 6 at home, I think against the Spurs.

Rank Player WS
1. Michael Jordan* 39.76
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 35.56
3. Magic Johnson* 32.63
4. Wilt Chamberlain* 31.46
5. Shaquille O'Neal 31.08
6. Tim Duncan 28.84
7. Bill Russell* 27.76
8. Julius Erving* 26.89
9. Kobe Bryant 26.85
10. Jerry West* 26.75
11. Larry Bird* 24.83
12. Scottie Pippen* 23.58
13. Karl Malone* 22.99
14. Hakeem Olajuwon* 22.60
15. Dirk Nowitzki 22.08
16. John Stockton* 21.35
17. Chauncey Billups 20.80
18. Kevin McHale* 20.67
19. Horace Grant 20.00
20. Reggie Miller 19.90
21. Charles Barkley* 19.52
22. John Havlicek* 19.27
23. LeBron James 18.53
24. Robert Horry 18.22
25. David Robinson* 17.52
26. George Mikan* 16.97
27. Walt Frazier* 15.92
28. Dan Issel* 15.85
29. Robert Parish* 15.57
30. Clyde Drexler* 15.50
31. Ben Wallace 15.41
32. Elgin Baylor* 15.36
33. Rasheed Wallace 15.24
34. Sam Jones* 15.23
35. James Worthy* 14.84
36. Moses Malone* 14.80
37. Roger Brown 14.80
38. Ray Allen 14.63
39. Zelmo Beaty 14.57
40. Manu Ginobili 14.46
41. Jeff Hornacek 14.44
42. Jason Kidd 14.14
43. Patrick Ewing* 14.06
44. Dolph Schayes* 13.95
45. Dwyane Wade 13.71
46. Oscar Robertson* 13.65
47. Bobby Jones 13.36
48. Artis Gilmore* 13.19
49. Dennis Johnson* 13.16
50. Rick Barry* 13.15
51. Maurice Cheeks 13.14
52. Derek Fisher 13.04
53. Paul Pierce 12.99
54. Kevin Garnett 12.85
55. Wes Unseld* 12.71
56. Pau Gasol 12.67
57. Isiah Thomas* 12.55
58. Steve Nash 11.85
59. Byron Scott 11.81
60. Bob Pettit* 11.74
61. Dennis Rodman* 11.74
62. Elvin Hayes* 11.71
63. Terry Porter 11.60
64. Michael Cooper 11.43
65. Richard Hamilton 11.39
66. Don Nelson 11.25
67. Jimmy Jones 11.20
68. Charles Oakley 11.15
69. Gary Payton 11.13
70. Tayshaun Prince 11.05
71. Bob Dandridge 11.04
72. Mel Daniels 10.95
73. Cliff Hagan* 10.74
74. Bill Laimbeer 10.70
75. Sam Perkins 10.49
76. Chet Walker 10.25
77. Joe Dumars* 10.07
78. Gus Williams 10.07
79. Dikembe Mutombo 9.91
80. A.C. Green 9.76
81. Cedric Maxwell 9.75
82. George Gervin* 9.72
83. Danny Ainge 9.62
84. Frank Ramsey* 9.49
85. Shawn Kemp 9.47
86. Dan Majerle 9.46
87. Kevin Johnson 9.44
88. Dave Cowens* 9.38
89. Bill Sharman* 9.32
90. Dwight Howard 9.27
91. Freddie Lewis 9.25
92. Vern Mikkelsen* 9.16
93. Tom Heinsohn* 9.13
94. Bob Cousy* 9.07
95. Adrian Dantley* 8.99
96. Lamar Odom 8.90
97. Dale Davis 8.83
98. George McGinnis 8.80
99. Shawn Marion 8.76
100. Jerome Kersey 8.75


I'd love to see number of playoff games played next to the names here. Because Kobe is not that far ahead of Dirk and he's played a shit ton more games.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:45 pm 
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Bruce wrote:
Bruce wrote:
Rank Player WS
27. Walt Frazier* 15.92


He did this in just 93 career playoff games. He's #11 of all time in win shares per 48 minutes in the playoffs. Notice that the guy who gets all this credit for winning 9 championships, Bill Russell, is only #25 in playoff win shares per 48 minutes, and well below The Stilt.

1. Michael Jordan* 0.2553
2. George Mikan* 0.2541
3. LeBron James 0.2218
4. Magic Johnson* 0.2078
5. Dirk Nowitzki 0.2067
6. Jerry West* 0.2031
7. Wilt Chamberlain* 0.1998
8. David Robinson* 0.1992
9. Tim Duncan 0.1991
10. Dwight Howard 0.1981
11. Walt Frazier* 0.1934
12. Charles Barkley* 0.1932
13. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 0.1929
14. Chauncey Billups 0.1918
15. Frank Ramsey* 0.1902
16. Dolph Schayes* 0.1890
17. Hakeem Olajuwon* 0.1887
18. Baron Davis 0.1886
19. Dwyane Wade 0.1867
20. Shaquille O'Neal 0.1842
21. Paul Arizin* 0.1827
22. Manu Ginobili 0.1815
23. Reggie Miller 0.1799
24. Oscar Robertson* 0.1783
25. Bill Russell* 0.1778


That's the list I wanted to see. As I thought Dirk is quite high.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:53 pm 
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corrections wrote:
Bruce wrote:
Bruce wrote:
Rank Player WS
27. Walt Frazier* 15.92


He did this in just 93 career playoff games. He's #11 of all time in win shares per 48 minutes in the playoffs. Notice that the guy who gets all this credit for winning 9 championships, Bill Russell, is only #25 in playoff win shares per 48 minutes, and well below The Stilt.

1. Michael Jordan* 0.2553
2. George Mikan* 0.2541
3. LeBron James 0.2218
4. Magic Johnson* 0.2078
5. Dirk Nowitzki 0.2067
6. Jerry West* 0.2031
7. Wilt Chamberlain* 0.1998
8. David Robinson* 0.1992
9. Tim Duncan 0.1991
10. Dwight Howard 0.1981
11. Walt Frazier* 0.1934
12. Charles Barkley* 0.1932
13. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 0.1929
14. Chauncey Billups 0.1918
15. Frank Ramsey* 0.1902
16. Dolph Schayes* 0.1890
17. Hakeem Olajuwon* 0.1887
18. Baron Davis 0.1886
19. Dwyane Wade 0.1867
20. Shaquille O'Neal 0.1842
21. Paul Arizin* 0.1827
22. Manu Ginobili 0.1815
23. Reggie Miller 0.1799
24. Oscar Robertson* 0.1783
25. Bill Russell* 0.1778


That's the list I wanted to see. As I thought Dirk is quite high.


And Kobe is not. He's just behind the legendary Vern Mikkelsen...LOL.

48. Vern Mikkelsen* 0.1588
49. Kobe Bryant 0.1578


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:38 am 
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and both Oscar Robertson and Bill Russell are below Baron Davis... :ugh:


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:43 am 
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George wrote:
and both Oscar Robertson and Bill Russell are below Baron Davis... :ugh:


Yes, but it's a rate stat and Davis has only played in 46 playoff games.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:59 am 
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Bruce wrote:
George wrote:
and both Oscar Robertson and Bill Russell are below Baron Davis... :ugh:


Yes, but it's a rate stat and Davis has only played in 46 playoff games.



so what do you say we throw that stat out, we know baron davis isnt better than oscar or russell, and kobe is better than the guy ranked ahead of him, lets use a different criteria.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:53 am 
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Vern Mikkelsen was an all-time great who played on some great teams, though. I can see the flaw in Win Shares/48, though.

On Bill Russell, I'm not sure how any pre-1974 stat can account for defense at all.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:06 am 
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mrsamtotheg wrote:
Bruce wrote:
George wrote:
and both Oscar Robertson and Bill Russell are below Baron Davis... :ugh:


Yes, but it's a rate stat and Davis has only played in 46 playoff games.



so what do you say we throw that stat out, we know baron davis isnt better than oscar or russell, and kobe is better than the guy ranked ahead of him, lets use a different criteria.


We're only using this for one thing, to determine the best players in the playoffs, per minute. It's very possible that Barron Davis has been great in that regard. That's one reason why the 67 win Mavs lost to Golden State in the first round.

Think of it like post season ERA for pitchers. We know that Jack Billingham was not a better pitcher than Greg Maddux, but Jack's post serason ERA is much better than Greg's. Billingham was 1.93 in 42 post season innings.

As for defense, here's how they calculate defensive win shares for the yeras that Russell and Oscar played.

B. 1951-52 to 1972-73 NBA
Prior to the 1973-74 season, the NBA did not track defensive rebounds, steals, or blocks, so allocating defensive credit is a difficult task. Nevertheless, here is the process for crediting Defensive Win Shares in those seasons (once again using Robertson in 1964-65 as an example):

Calculate team marginal defense. Team marginal defense is equal to 1.08 * (league points per shot attempt) * (team field goal attempts + 0.44 * (team free throw attempts)) - (opponent points). If you're wondering why we're using team shot attempts as opposed to opponent shot attempts, the answer is (a) we don't have opponent shot attempts prior to 1970-71 and (b) the system works better using team shot attempts. For the 1964-65 Royals we get 1.08 * 0.9578 * (7797 + 0.44 * 2866) - 8952 = 417.854.
Calculate the player's share of the team's marginal defense. The player's share of the team's marginal defense is equal to 0.25 * ((minutes played) / (team minutes played)) + 0.5 * ((total rebounds) / (team total rebounds)) + 0.25 * ((assists) / (team assists)). How did I get those weights? Modern Defensive Win Shares are most dependent on minutes played, defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks. I regressed DWS on those stats and then found the relative importance of each regressor (approximately 25% for minutes played, 35% for defensive rebounds, 25% for steals, and 15% for blocks). Since those defensive statistics are not available for past seasons, I used total rebounds as a proxy for defensive rebounds and blocks; and assists as a proxy for steals. A couple more notes: (1) prior to the 1964-65 season, team minutes played were not an official statistic, so for those seasons estimate the team's minutes played using the formula 5 * 48 * (team games) + 125; and (2) prior to the 1967-68 season, team total rebounds included team rebounds, so to account for this multiply the team total by 0.875. Getting back to our example, Robertson's share on the 1964-65 Royals is equal to 0.25 * (3421 / 19325) + 0.5 * (674 / (0.875 * 5387)) + 0.25 * (861 / 1843) = 0.2325.

Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (team marginal defense) * (player share). For Robertson this is 417.854 * 0.2325 = 97.151. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.

Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.16 * (team points per game + opponent points per game). For the 1964-65 Royals this is 0.16 * (114.2 + 111.9) = 36.176.

Credit defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). Robertson gets credit for 97.151 / 36.176 = 2.69 Defensive Win Shares.


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 Post subject: Re: 100 Greatest NBA Basketball Players
PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:08 pm 
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