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 Post subject: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:25 pm 
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predictions, articles, thoughts, concerns, etc. post them here.


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:27 pm 
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Oscar Patrol, Best Picture: 'King's Speech' Might Just Rake In Some Cash
by: Will Leitch (Yahoo! Movies)

Of all the films that opened small and expanded so far this year -- "127 Hours," "Hereafter," "Fair Game" -- the one that had the largest per-screen average of any 2010 film was "The King's Speech." In four theaters over the weekend, "The King's Speech" brought in $350,000. We knew it was Oscar bait: Now we know audiences might actually want to see it. That might end up making a huge difference in who wins this filthy business. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make due with the "For Your Consideration" ads.


Locks

"The Kids Are All Right." If "Modern Family" can be one of the most popular shows on television, Lisa Cholodenko's in the clear. It's an excellent sign that the big debate involves which of your lead actresses to nominate.

"The King's Speech." So tailor-made for Oscar that it's a surprise it hasn't already won one.

"The Social Network." The cinema nerds love it, and it might well cross the $100 million mark. We're gonna be hearing "Network" vs. "Speech" debates for the next, oh, three months.

"Toy Story 3." We're not sure it makes it in during a tough year if "Up" doesn't open the door, but it did, so it's in. Good guess: This will be Tim Allen's only Oscar-nominated film.


On The Bubble

"Another Year." Mike Leigh might think awards are dumb, but his movies are always nominated for their women, not him.

"Black Swan." People love it, but this movie isn't going to become any less intense over the next four months.

"The Fighter." All the early screenings have been raves, but it's still possible it's more an actor's movie than a movie's movie.

"Hereafter." As usual, older moviegoers love it, and younger moviegoers wonder if Clint Eastwood has ever, ever asked for a second take.

"Inception." Probably should be considered a lock, all told.

"Rabbit Hole." Might sneak in only if it causes more tears than "Toy Story 3."

"True Grit." We look forward to someone being allowed to say they've seen it, so we can move it into the "lock" category.

"Winter's Bone." Well, Woody Allen really likes it. And those Gotham and Independent Spirit Award nods won't hurt either.


Still Holding Out Hope

"Biutiful." Clearly, Javier Bardem is excited.

"Blue Valentine." Another "actor's movie." We still think this NC-17 business will only help the film. Others disagree. Being shut out by the Spirit Awards didn't help.

"How Do You Know." Anyone with a memory of "Spanglish" will believe it when they see it. Also: It's called a question mark, people.

"Made In Dagenham." Just because In Contention's Guy Lodge thinks so. We're being polite.

"Somewhere." The surprise win at Venice helps, and to be honest, we sorta forgot "Lost In Translation" was nominated for three Oscars other than Bill Murray's.

"The Town." It's a nice thought, but Ben Affleck will have to take solace in making people believe him as an actor again.


Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads

"Barney's Version."
"Casino Jack."
"Country Strong."
"Fair Game."
"For Colored Girls."
"Get Low."
"The Ghost Writer."
"I Am Love."
"Inside Job."
"How To Train Your Dragon."
"Love And Other Drugs."
"Secretariat."
"Shutter Island."
"The Tourist."
"Waiting For Superman."
"The Way Back."


Last edited by the greatest on Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:28 pm 
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Oscar Patrol, Best Actor: The Field Is Thin, Thinning
by: Will Leitch (Yahoo! Movies)

Not that long ago, Academy voters were so hard-up for Best Actress candidates that they nominated women from "Tumbleweeds," "Blue Sky," "Mrs. Henderson Presents" and "Music Of The Heart," four movies we're pretty sure don't actually exist. (Renee Zellweger was nominated for "Bridget Jones' Diary." Seriously!) This year, though, the slim pickings are in the Best Actor category: They're gonna have to strain to find five good ones. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make due with the "For Your Consideration" ads.


Locks

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network." The film has a better chance of winning than he does, but his performance earns more respect the more you think about the movie.

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech." Probably should have won last year, best part of film, obligingly showed up in "Mamma Mia," stutters. Easy.

James Franco, "127 Hours." The year of Franco -- both the actor and the "fictional" artist from "General Hospital" -- is assured. If he wins, we just hope he does one-armed pushups like Jack Palance. This movie's only going to get bigger, every week.


On The Bubble

Javier Bardem, "Biutiful." Could get nominated the same way Penelope Cruz would get nominated for Almodovar films: Lack of competition.

Jeff Bridges, "True Grit." If John Wayne can win an Oscar for this role, you'd think Jeff Bridges could be freaking nominated, at least.

Robert Duvall, "Get Low." A showy part for an actor everybody loves. Though the film's pretty lousy.

Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine." Gosling's supposedly not as great as Michelle Williams in the film, but he has less competition than she does.

Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter." He wants it, he wants it baaahhhd. But everyone likes his co-stars more than they like him.


Still Holding Out Hope

Stephen Dorff, "Somewhere." But only if he's as cuddly as Bill Murray.

Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Version." Maybe if they had Canadian Oscars. (Wait: Do they have Canadian Oscars?)


Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads

Jim Broadbent, "Another Year."
George Clooney, "The American."
Johnny Depp, "The Tourist."
Aaron Eckhart, "Rabbit Hole."
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Inception."
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Shutter Island."
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Love and Other Drugs."
Sean Penn, "Fair Game."


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:30 pm 
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Oscar Patrol, Best Actress: A Naked Anne Hathaway Never Hurts
by: Will Leitch (Yahoo! Movies)

This week alone, Anne Hathaway is hosting "Saturday Night Live," naked on the cover of Entertainment Weekly and inspiring think pieces about on-screen boobage. There are worse ways to start an Oscar kick. And remember: Her character in "Love And Other Drugs" has Parkinson's disease and may die at the end of the film. In other words: Stock up! Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make due with the "For Your Consideration" ads.


Locks

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right." Right now, the studio's planning on putting both Bening and Julianne Moore in the Best Actress category. Don't count on it: Bening has too good a chance at winning to mess with her mojo. Awards Daily likes them both, but it's still feeling like Bening's year.

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan." We've seen her in a thong this week, so an Oscar nomination is the next logical step.


On The Bubble

Anne Hathaway, "Love And Other Drugs." Honestly: It might come down to whether or not she dies. Acting, tough racket.

Sally Hawkins, "Made in Dagenham." Grierson's far from crazy about the movie, but it is a crowd-pleaser, and she has the plum role.

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole." Someday, they're gonna regret giving her her lone Oscar for "The Hours."

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone." Here's something you might not have known: She's in "The Beaver," Mel Gibson's perhaps-never-to-be-seen Jodie Foster-directed talking-puppet movie. Surely sounded like a great idea at the time.

Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine." The NC-17 "controversy" can only help her, and the film. Eventually.


Still Holding Out Hope

Diane Lane, "Secretariat." No one remembers the movie. A horse, right?

Lesley Manville, "Another Year." Still might go down to supporting for a better chance.

Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right." Speaking of supporting. But they may want to push both, and then wait for Moore to gracefully say, "it should be Bening."

Carey Mulligan, "Never Let Me Go." She's moved up a spot because others are touting her, though we don't see it.

Gwyneth Paltrow, "Country Strong." But guys, she really, really wants it! We're guessing "Glee" helped, though.

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit." She looks awesome in the trailer, and if the book's any indicator, she has too large of a part to be "supporting."

Naomi Watts, "Fair Game." Has the showier role, but we're sensing a big yawn from everyone about this movie.

Reese Witherspoon, "How Do You Know." Eventually, they're gonna have to show this movie to someone.


Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads

Halle Berry, "Frankie & Alice"
Kimberly Elise, "For Colored Girls... "
Kirsten Dunst, "All Good Things"
Angelina Jolie, "The Tourist"
Rachel McAdams, "Morning Glory"
Helen Mirren, "The Tempest"
Julia Roberts, "Eat Pray Love"
Kristen Stewart, "Welcome to the Rileys"
Hilary Swank, "Conviction"
Tilda Swinton, "I Am Love"


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:31 pm 
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Oscar Patrol: Best Supporting Actress
by: Will Leitch (Yahoo! Movies)

The Best Supporting Actress field has been perhaps the most up-in-the-air race so far, just because no one's quite sure if some of the women currently listed as Best Actress will stay there. Will Julianne Moore be moved for "The Kids Are All Right?" Will Lesley Manville for "Another Year?" One thing we do know, in the wake of those raves for "The Fighter:" Amy Adams is as close to a lock as we have right now. After that, it's a crapshoot, which is an actual word and not something we're trying to sneak past Yahoo! censors. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make due with the "For Your Consideration" ads.


Locks

Amy Adams, "The Fighter." The movie is a veritable fountain of acting nominations -- Christian Bale is immediately the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor -- and in a weak year, it's tough to imagine her not getting in.


On The Bubble

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech." Benefiting from the notion that the film might just sweep everything.

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter." Has been accused of being a bit campy, but it's certainly a showy role.

Lesley Manville, "Another Year." She very well might win if they put her here.

Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right." A potential favorite if she's listed as Supporting, but it's not looking like they're gonna do that, yet anyway.

Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham." The attention may go to Bob Hoskins.

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit." Ditto Julianne Moore. Though eventually we have to see the movie.

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom." In a weak year, she has a real chance with a low-profile movie, considering how much they're already promoting her.

Dianne Weist, "Rabbit Hole." She has the Robin Williams in "Good Will Hunting" role, but really ... she's gonna win three times?


Still Holding Out Hope

Dale Dickey, "Winter's Bone." The DVD release last week can only help, and momentum is starting to build for the film.

Elle Fanning, "Somewhere." As long as it doesn't turn her into Scarlett Johansson.

Barbara Hershey, "Black Swan." Wins points for the "most uncomfortable toenail clipping scene" award.

Sissy Spacek, "Get Low." If Bill Murray isn't getting in, neither is she.

Kristin Scott Thomas, "Nowhere Boy." Enjoying the benefits of a surprisingly positive reception for the film.


Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads

Rebecca Hall, "The Town."
Juliette Lewis, "Conviction."
Rooney Mara, "The Social Network."
Diane Keaton, "Morning Glory."
Mila Kunis, "Black Swan."
Saoirse Ronan, "The Way Back."
Winona Ryder, "Black Swan."
Mia Wasikowska, "The Kids Are All Right."


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:33 pm 
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Oscar Patrol: Best Supporting Actor
by: Will Leitch (Yahoo! Movies)

We'll be looking at a different Oscar category -- well, the "major" ones, anyway -- every Tuesday and Thursday, and we start out with Best Supporting Actor, which is a little thinner than in past years. We are reminded of this post from The Film Experience Blog, which looks at Oscar's history with the Supporting Actor category. We're a sucker for "showy villain" ourselves, though there aren't nearly enough of those this year. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make due with the "For Your Consideration" ads.


Locks

Christian Bale, "The Fighter." It'll be shown to Manhattan critics for the first time Thursday -- we won't be there -- but Bale's a clear favorite in the "drug-addicted sidekick" role. Plus, he lost a lot of weight, which isn't as impressive as gaining a lot of weight but still, not bad, Bale.

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech." Still considered the favorite to win: Could end up being the Christoph Waltz "mark your ballot and move on" pick. It depends how much people like "The Fighter."


On The Bubble

Michael Douglas, "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps." A clear flimsy pick, but do you want to be the one arguing against a Hollywood favorite who's undergoing grueling treaments for lung cancer?

Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network." Losing some steam because people are liking Armie Hammer's performance a bit more. But he's still Spider-Man, and gives the best supporting performance.

Jeremy Renner, "The Town." Still the film's only real chance at any nomination.

Sam Rockwell, "Conviction." A respected actor who might finally get his nod, but no one particularly likes the movie, other than his role in it.

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right." Still hanging in, but like the movie itself, he's been pushed aside for the higher profile female leads.

Armie Hammer, "The Social Network." Considered the most "fun" performance, and he gets credit for playing two guys, even if they're the same guy.

Ed Harris, "The Way Back." The biggest role, some even argue he should be a lead.

Paul Rudd, "How Do You Know." He's the one they'll be pushing for this; we just hope everyone remembers the time he beat up Michael Myers.


Still Holding Out Hope

Matt Damon, "Hereafter." The movie stinks unless you're 90 years old, but the elderly Academy members may nod to him because he's the only actor in the film they know.

Matt Damon, "True Grit." Has a showy role, it's said, and he has to be better than Glen Campbell.

John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone." No one really remembers him from this, but hey: He was in "Eastbound and Down," which is cool at least.

Bob Hoskins, "Made in Dagenham." The film's trailer reveals him to be a bigger part of the film than had been realized.

John Malkovich, "Secretariat." Dropped down a spot because the movie just never picked up much steam.

Bill Murray, "Get Low." No one is all that crazy about the movie, and it feels like a waste to give a nomination for a movie that won't be considered among his best.

Justin Timberlake, "The Social Network." Losing momentum fast. People just don't want to give him an EGOT.


Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads

Josh Brolin, "True Grit"
Vincent Cassel, "Black Swan"
Chris Cooper, "The Company Men"
Colin Farrell, "The Way Back"
Andrew Garfield, "Never Let Me Go"
Jon Hamm, "The Town"
Jack Nicholson, "How Do You Know"
Owen Wilson, "How Do You Know"


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:46 pm 
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these are my personal predictions (ranked by how confident i am in the pick):

Best Picture
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Town

Best Actor
Colin Firth in The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
James Franco in 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Robert Duvall in Get Low

Best Actress
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Mila Kunis in Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield in The Social Network


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:29 am 
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portman lock in fo sho


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 6:42 pm 
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Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech
The Social Network

I think either Toy Story 3 OR True Grit will be nominated. The last award will go to one of the slightly under-considered movies, either Casino Jack or Somewhere or Get Low or Winter's Bone.


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 4:18 pm 
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Well I'm pleasantly surprised that my predictions about the Awards giving space to this year's dependie films came true

Edit: nvm, didn't catch that those were just pave's predictions and not the actually noms.


Last edited by Dreww on Wed Dec 29, 2010 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 4:25 pm 
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yeah tbh the predicted 10 for best picture are all solid enough, leagues ahead of last year's bunch. Still gonna have to go with Social Network taking it


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 5:38 pm 
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Uncle Boonmee has unsurprisingly been picked as Thailand's nomination for Best Foreign Film, and its nomination for the award proper is a likely lock. I think its the critics' favorite to win. If it does, it increases the chances of it playing anywhere near me by quite a bit.


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 7:30 pm 
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I don't think its the favorite at the moment for the best foreign film pic; so far, bitiful has been picking up most of the awards and nominations.


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 3:56 am 
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Doing my predictions for nomination:

Best Picture
The Social network
Black Swan
True Grit
127 Hours
Inception
Toy Story 3
the Kids are alright
Winters Bone
The Kings Speech
The Fighter

Best Actor
James Franco-127 Hours
Jessie Essenberg-Social Network
Colin Firth-Kings Speech
Jeff Bridges-True Grit
Robert Duval-Get Low

Best Actress
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Annete Benning-The Kids are Alright
Jennifer Lawerence-Winters bone
Michelle Williams-blue valentine
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole

Best Sup. Actor
Geoffery Rush-Kings Speech
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids are Alright
John Hawkes-Winters bone
Andrew Garfield-Social Network

Best Sup. Actress
Melissa Leo-Fighter
Amy Adams-Fighter
Mila Kunis-Black Swan
Hailee Stenfield-True Grit
Helena Bonham Carter-Kings Speech

Director
David Fincher-Social Network
Christopher Nolan-Inception
Darren Arnofsky-Black swan
Joel and Ethan Coen-True Grit
Tom Hopper-The Kings Speech

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
True Grit
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winters Bone

Original Screenplay
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The Fighter
The Kings Speech

Foreign Film
Aftershock
Bitiful
The Edge
In A Better World
Uncle Boonmee


Documentry - betwen "inside job" "Exit through the gift shop" and "Waitin for superman" (the three biggest docs of the year) only two will be nominated. My guess is inside and waitin.

Animated film
Toy story 3
despicable me
How to train your dragon

Black Swan will receive the most nominations
Roger Deakins is going to win this year for Cinematography
Hoping scott pilgrim gets a nomination somewhere, even if its sound editing, but it wont.


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 Post subject: Re: 83rd Academy Awards thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:03 pm 
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so it seems rather predictable now who's gonna win based on the awards results so far. Can't think of any up in the air kinda awards other than technicalities which will probably mostly go to Inception as this year's Avatar where big movie gets awarded all the technicals to make up for some shit.

I truly hope Lesley Manville at least gets nominated cuz she really had the best performance of last year.


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